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The arguments of Dawkins, Dennett and others against modern religion have been criticized by numerous scholars, even by several scholars who definitely do not hail from the devoutly religious camp -- see Atheists. But even setting aside these debates for the moment, is it clear that religion is fading away?
Andrew Brown recently commented on this question, in the context of Dawkins' book, in these terms [Brown2006]:
Dawkins gets miffed when [his writings] are called "19th-century" atheism, since, as he says, the period of their first discovery does not affect the truth of these propositions. But to call it "19th-century" is to draw attention to the important truth added in the 20th century: that religious belief persists in the face of these facts and arguments. ... This persistence is what any scientific attack on religion must explain -- and [Dawkins' The God Delusion] doesn't. Dawkins mentions lots of modern atheist scientists who have tried to explain the puzzle. ... But he cannot accept the obvious conclusion to draw from their works, which is that thoroughgoing atheism is unnatural and will never be popular.
Similarly, British scholar Alister McGrath, in his recent book, Why God Won't Go Away, concludes that [McGrath2010a, pg. 146]:
Religious beliefs and practices work with the grain of human nature. No account of human nature or aspirations can ignore this point -- not even the New Atheism, who so clearly fails to address the obvious fact that most people experience religion as liberating and supportive.
For example, in an October 2019 commentary, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat observed that when weekly church attendance among twenty-somethings today is compared with twenty-somethings in the 1990s, there is actually a slight increase. In other words, the recent decline in church attendance nationwide is more a phenomenon of baby boomers leaving than of young people not coming [Douthat2019]. Similarly, in spite of the rise of the nones in recent years, 70% of Americans believe in some sort of afterlife, a figure that has not changed much in over 60 years (with similar percentages in other developed nations) [Lawton2019]. Some other statistics, from a 2018 study, include the following: 90% of Americans believe in either God essentially as described in the Bible, or at least a higher power or spiritual force. This includes 91% of those described as "religion resisters" and 46% of those described as "solidly secular" [Pew2018].
What's more, a 2014 study found that 59% of Americans (including 31% of atheists, 37% of agnostics and 42% of nones) report feeling a "deep sense of spiritual peace and well-being" at least once a week. Similarly, 46% of Americans (including 54% of atheists, 55% of agnostics and 43% of nones) say that they experience a "deep sense of wonder about the universe" on at least a weekly basis. In each case these statistics are significantly greater than when these same questions were previously asked in 2007 [Masci2016]. Shouldn't we describe such persons as "religious," in the broad sense of the term?
Even among professional scientists, there is little indication of significant decline in religious belief or spirituality. In a 2010 study of approximately 1700 natural and social scientists in the U.S., nearly 50% identify with a religious label; roughly 18% attend weekly religious services; 15% consider themselves "very religious;" 13.5% read some religious text weekly; and 19% pray at least once per day [Ecklund2010]. Another study found that although 30% of the scientists surveyed considered themselves atheists, many of these consider themselves "spiritual atheists," meaning that although they do not subscribe to a traditional Judeo-Christian notion of God, nonetheless they have a deep sense of awe and wonder at the magnificence of nature. Many report a deep craving for "something beyond themselves" [Ruth2014].
In short, the decline of the "nones" appears to be more rooted in the failure of many established religious organizations to adjust to changing times and address the deep personal needs of their congregants than to a decline in fundamental religiosity.
Along this line, a scientific colleague of the present author recently declared that in spite of the fact that he hasn't practiced conventional religion for many years, he is a "devoted worshipper" of the magnificence of the universe and the elegance of scientific laws. Such scientists (and others with similar worldviews) defy simplistic categorization into pigeonholes such as "religious," "nonreligious," "agnostic" or "atheist."
However, for every one of these grand tragedies there are ten thousand acts of personal kindness and social good that go largely unreported in the history books or on the evening news. Religion, like all social institutions of such historical depth and cultural impact, cannot be reduced to an unambiguous good or evil.
A 2012 U.S. study found a very strong correlation between religious participation and charitable giving. The most charitable states (in terms of the percentage of discretionary income paid to charitable causes), namely Utah, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina, are among the highest in religious participation, while the least charitable states, namely New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, are among the lowest in religious participation [Lindsay2012].
It is also interesting to note the prediction, by the Durants, in their volume Lessons of History (published in 1968), that if communism in the former Soviet Union would some day fall, then it is likely that there would be a resurgence of religion, long repressed, in that region [Durant1968, pg. 51]. Indeed, this appears to be happening, although there have been some setbacks. For example, a 2008 law in Russia allows theological academies to offer degrees recognized by the state. A editorial comment in the western press noted that healthy traditions such as this are "badly needed" as bulwarks against totalitarianism [Economist2013b].
The same is true for much of the treasure trove of western literature. The works of Shakespeare are filled with religion, particularly well-known plays such as Macbeth, Hamlet, Othello and King Lear. King and Lady Macbeth are ravaged with guilt over their murder of Duncan, and indeed this guilt leads Lady Macbeth in particular to hallucinatory mania by the end of the work. Hamlet wrestles with whether he should avenge his father and kill Claudius, or leave vengeance to God as his religious beliefs would require him to do. There are overtones of the doctrine of predestination in the the play. In Othello, Iago plays the role of the archetypal villain, the personification of evil, as he manipulates other characters at will. King Lear can be seen as a study of the interplay of the natural and the unnatural, as well as good and evil.
Johann Sebastian Bach is widely regarded as the greatest composer of history, in addition to being the most prolific [Tommasini2011]. The catalog of Bach's works lists over 1000 items, most of which are explicitly devoted to religious themes and intended for religious liturgy. Over 200 of these works were cantatas, roughly 30-minute works of choral-instrumental music, intended to accompany a traditional Lutheran worship service, and thought by many to be the centerpiece of Bach's musical genius. Bach's Mass in B-Minor and St. Matthew Passion are among the single greatest works of all classical music. Not all of Bach's works were on religious themes. Some, like the Well-Tempered Clavier collection and A Musical Offering, have considerable merit in spite of having no clear religious theme or text. But, as Fran de Waal among others have noted, other secular works, such as Bach's secular cantatas, "are so obviously inferior" to Bach's religious works that one wonders why Bach even wrote them [deWaal2013, pg. 84].
One good example is Phantom of the Opera, which is the all-time most popular musical in terms of the total number who have seen live performances (and second only to Les Miserables in the number of years of continuous stage performances). The musical version, like the book, explores at length the remarkable phenomenon of how human nature (sometimes in the same person!) can simultaneously be both extraordinarily good and extraordinarily evil. Indeed, the musical's lyrics repeatedly play on this theme: "Close your eyes and surrender to your darkest dreams," "The darkness of the music of the night," "Let your darker side give in," "My spirit and my voice in one combined," "the Phantom of the Opera is there inside your mind," and numerous others [Phantom2012].
Another excellent example is Les Miserables, which is now the longest-running musical theatre production in history, having been seen by over 60 million persons worldwide [LesMiserables2011b]. The musical Les Miserables, like the great Victor Hugo novel on which the musical was based, is chock-full of religious themes. The plot turns on how the desperate escaped convict Jean Valjean, overwhelmed by a consummate act of charity by a local bishop on his behalf, decides to turn over a new leaf and redeem his misdeeds. He is relentlessly pursued by the police officer Javert, who is determined to bring him to justice since, as Javert sings, "And so it has been and so it is written, on the doorway to paradise, that those who falter and those who fall must pay the price!" [LesMiserables2011a, 2:00:10]. One of the most memorable numbers from Les Miserables is, quite literally, a prayer by Jean Valjean that begins, "God on high, hear my prayer. In my need, you have always been there." This is followed, soon afterward, by the moving and deeply religious passage, "Take my hand and lead me to salvation. Take my love, for love is everlasting. And remember the truth that once was spoken: To love another person is to see the face of God!" [LesMiserables2011a, 2:16:40, 2:21:20]. The grand finale echoes in unmistakable terms the Judeo-Christian concept of heaven: "They will live again in freedom in the garden of the Lord. They will walk behind the plough-share; they will put away the sword. The chain will be broken, and all men will have their reward!" [LesMiserables2011a, 2:22:20].
Other, more recent movies continue this fascination with religion, at least in a general, high-level spiritual sense akin to the Star Wars movies. This can be seen in the highly successful Matrix movies of 1999 and 2003, in which the lead character Neo is cast as a savior with supernatural powers sent to redeem Zion. In the Lord of the Rings and Hobbit movies, the characters seek the supernatural power of the ring as a defense against evil. And, more recently, the Harry Potter movies have been replete with supernatural effects and struggles between good and evil.
Even movies targeted more to cinematic critics and less to the popular culture frequently feature spiritual themes. This can be seen most clearly in the Woody Allen movies, many of which are replete with religious and philosophical questions: the existence of God, the nature of God, life after death, morality, punishment for crimes, redemption from sin and free will. As a single example, the movie Crimes and Misdemeanors explores at length the religious and psychological struggles of a New York City ophthalmologist who considers murder in the wake of his mistress' threat to expose their affair. The pervasive religious themes in Allen's movies are remarkable given that Allen himself is not a serious religious believer.
However, the "new atheists" and others who argue that religion is harmful and rapidly fading from modern society have never satisfactorily explained the persistence of religious belief, particularly in the more general sense of a "deep sense of spiritual peace and well-being" or a "deep sense of wonder about the universe." They have not explained the continuing popularity of the great works of religion-inspired European art, the pervasive religious motifs in the works of Shakespeare and others and what inspired Bach to write over 1000 mostly religious works, several of which even today are counted among the greatest musical works of all time. They are left to explain why, even in the 21st century, highly secularized Spain is so passionate about a new cathedral. They are left to explain the extraordinary success of musicals such as Phantom of the Opera and Les Miserables, with their overtly religious themes, and the worldwide popularity of modern movies with quasi-religious themes such as Star Wars. And they are left to explain why ethics based in the scriptures of the Judeo-Christian world and other major world religions continue to form the basis of secular laws and governmental institutions worldwide (even if such laws and institutions are properly framed in entirely secular terms, and properly enacted by secular, democratic governments!).
For additional details, see Atheists, Dawkins.